• "The 'Billion Prices Project' in Cyprus: Measuring  the Consumer Price Index Inflation of Cyprus by using Big Data"
    A monthly Inflation Indicator for Cyprus was developed based on monthly frequency of a large dataset of publicly available website data. This follows the methodology developed in the USA and many other countries named as the One Billion Prices Project which construct new inflation indices, see for instance, https://thebillionpricesproject.com/ and https://www.pricestats.com/. This indicator/tool is one of the key indicators in many macroeconometric models and its results and report are available via the publication on the Centre’s website and are evaluated regularly to monitor the monthly Inflation Indicator.
  •  "The effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on key economic indicators and bank loans in Cyprus"
    Macroeconomic Uncertainty based on large panels of macroeconomic indicators following the methodology of Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015), American Economic Review, which involves factor analysis, predictive regression models, and volatility modeling. The Macroeconomic Uncertainty is an important indicator for economic policy makers in view of recent multiple uncertainty shocks in international economies and especially Cyprus. The publication of the report of this indicator and is effects is available on the Centre’s website.
  • "The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) - Updated Methodology & Forecasting"
    The Composite Leading Economic Indicator for Cyprus has been developed using historical and real-time data of mixed frequencies using two alternative methodologies, the US Conference Board and the Aruoba, Diebold, and Scotti (2009) Business Conditions Index Federal Bank of Philadelphia method. This is a useful indicator for economic policy makers since it tracks economic activity at a higher frequency and it helps assess in a timely manner the business cycle phases of the Cyprus economy. Importantly, the team has recently proceeded with forecasts of Cyprus' economic activity using the mixed-frequency MIDAS models. Exploiting the high-frequency observations of the CCLEI, a robust and comprehensive forecasting analysis leads to robust forecasts of the short-term and long-term prospects of the Cypriot economy.
  • "The Cyprus General Equilibrium Model (CypGEM)"
    CypGEM is a medium-scale DSGE model designed for macroeconomic policy analysis in Cyprus. It incorporates nominal and real frictions, financial market imperfections, and sovereign risk-premia on public debt within a small open economy of a currency union like the euro area (with no monetary policy independence). The model mirrors the Cypriot economy’s production structure, distinguishing non-tradable and tradable sectors, with the latter focusing on financial and tourism services. To model realistically the net foreign position of the Cypriot economy public debt is held by domestic private agents, foreign agents, and EU institutions (e.g., ESM loans, Recovery Fund) while also allowing for foreign direct investments (FDI). It also includes a rich menu of fiscal components like public spending (current expenditures and investments), and effective taxes on the main public revenues categories (consumption, labor, capital). Thus, CypGEM can evaluate a broad number fiscal policies (e.g., RRP investments, tax reforms, debt consolidation) and structural reforms (e.g., Digital and Green Transition). Extensions address energy transition and climate change impacts by differentiating between Clean and Dirty sectors.

Last Updated on April 4, 2026